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Oscar Predictions 2017: How Did We Do?


The Guys from {FILM} is a discussion on movies and films from all eras and genres

Oscar Predictions 2017: How Did We Do?

Shaun Cordingley

As per usual on The Guys From Podcast, we made our predictions on who would win all 24 categories in this years' Academy Awards, and in the interest of being honest and fair, we always like going over how we did when it comes to making predictions. At the end of the day, I did alright, and Dave...well the important thing is he: he had fun...but I'll get to that in a bit...

Overall the ceremony was...strange. Jimmy Kimmel was fine as the host (accepting that not everything lands, some pieces were awkward, and he's not in charge of envelopes), but with a run-time of nearly 4 hours...I love film, and I've always enjoyed the Oscars, but for the love of Kubrick, these felt too long. Part of that has to do with the commercial breaks, which...when we have an award, a speech, a commercial, a video, an award, a speech and a's hard to stay focused, and everything starts to drag, and to me, that's then up to the host to kick the show into gear. I'm not saying I did not appreciate the political-bent that the ceremony took, as it is a stage for people to speak to a large audience about important issues (Syria for example, or a filmmaker not being allowed into the country for no good reason), but could we not have reduced some joke times? 

The ending....was...well it's essentially the biggest mistake in Oscars history, with a multiple part failure in several camps leading to the wrong Best Picture nominee being read as the winner. I cannot imagine how much that hurt, and I want to give a shout out to Jordan Horowitz, the Producer of La La Land for handling the colossal  fuck up (no better way to put it) with an immense amount of class in what would have been a surreal and deeply angering moment. 

Anyway, here's how we did: 

Best Sound Mixing:

Dave: Arrival

Shaun: La La Land

...And the Oscar goes to: Hacksaw Ridge

- This makes a lot of sense, for all of the reasons that we talked about during the Podcast: war movies require a lot of work when it comes to sound mixing, and while I haven't seen Hacksaw Ridge yet, the clips they were showing were further evidence of this how Dave and I both talked about it next....

Best Sound Editing: 

Dave: Hacksaw Ridge

Shaun: Hacksaw Ridge

...And the Oscar goes to: Arrival

- Very Cool! Both Dave and I apparently picked the wrong  sound category for Hacksaw Ridge, and I just didn't think Arrival was going to take one of the sound categories over both a musical and war film...but here we are. 

Best Documentary Short: 

Dave: Joe's Violin

Shaun: Joe's Violin

...And the Oscar goes to: The White Helmets

- Honestly, I cannot say I was too surprised; fact of the matter is I'm quite happy that one of the documentaries about the war in Syria won this award so (at least some of the filmmakers...) were able to express their feelings on the biggest stage in film. 
Also: no 3/3 this year for Dave...

Best Live Action Short: 

Dave: Ennemis Interieurs

Shaun: Ennemis Interieurs

...And the Oscar goes to: Sing

- I love that we both joked that because I had been hearing a lot of good things about the film we selected, and Timecode, that Sing would probably win, because that is the crapshoot short-film awards seem to be...
Note to future selves: listen to your own jokes. 

Best Animated Short: 

Dave: Borrowed Time

Shaun: Piper

...And the Oscar goes to: Piper

- You have no idea how happy I was to get on the board (finally), and to not go 0/3 again in the short film, Piper is an adorable film. 

Best Animated Feature Film: 

Dave: Moana

Shaun: Zootopia

...And the Oscar goes to: Zootopia

-Cannot say this was a surprise to me at all: based on how well it was doing everywhere else (award wise), and it's a fun little movie about not being afraid of "the other", which rings especially true in today's climate down south...

Best Cinematography: 

Dave: La La Land

Shaun: La La Land

...And the Oscar goes to: La La Land

-...have you seen La La Land? It's gorgeously shot...this was one of the few that I was sure on (plus, Dave is on the board! Whee!) 

Best Production Design: 

Dave: Passengers

Shaun: La La Land

...And the Oscar goes to: La La Land

- Again....have you seen La La Land? GORGEOUS.

And I told Dave in the Podcast: no one can vote for Production Design for a space movie that has a fountain on a just doesn't make sense. 

Best Costume Design: 

Dave: Jackie

Shaun: La La Land

...And the Oscar goes to: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

- DAMN YOU COSTUME GUILD AWARDS! I was suckered into believing in consistency, but at the same time, I can see why a fantastical 1920s won the costuming award....I've never been a Harry Potter guy, but everything I saw about those were...well let's just say I want to wear almost all of them. 

Best Makeup & Hair

Dave: Suicide Squad

Shaun: Star Trek Beyond

...And the Oscar goes to: Suicide Squad

- There's a part of me that is amazed that Martin Scorcese and Leonardo DiCaprio are now tied with Suicide Squad for Oscar wins, but at the same time KNB did a damn fine job on the makeup and hair in that movie...and...the problems aren't the makeups fault. 

Best Visual Effects

Dave: Doctor Strange

Shaun: The Jungle Book

...And the Oscar goes to: The Jungle Book

- I was honestly feeling pretty good about this pick for the reasons I stated in the Podcast: the effects were absolutely gorgeous, and they felt new...which is incredible when you are telling the Jungle Book story again. Plus, the sheer scope of what they did with the animals is amazing. 

Best Original Song: 

Dave: "The Empty Chair" - Jim: The James Foley Story

Shaun: "City of Stars" - La La Land

...And the Oscar goes to: "City of Stars" - La La Land

- Dave was foiled by his intense love of Sting here.
Honestly, this was a really strong year when it came to songs (in my opinion), top to bottom (and that performance from Moana was awesome), but I will never bet against an original musical with momentum in a song category. 

Best Original Score: 

Dave: Lion

Shaun: La La Land

...And the Oscar goes to: La La Land

- Again, I will never bet against an original musical in a music category at the Oscars until I have a good reason to.

Best Editing: 

Dave: Arrival

Shaun: La La Land

...And the Oscar goes to: Hacksaw Ridge

- You know, this was a category that I wasn't sure of until I actually watched the clips side by side...and now am not surprised at all that Hacksaw Ridge took this award. It was beautifully put together (to the point that watching that sequence, you couldn't even see the cuts...well deserved. 
Plus another reminder that I need to see this film. 

Best Adapted Screenplay: 

Dave: Fences

Shaun: Moonlight

...And the Oscar goes to: Moonlight

- Yes. All the yes. Moonlight deserved this category, and I am very happy (still) that it won; this is a fantastic script. 

Best Original Screenplay: 

Dave: The Lobster

Shaun: Manchester by the Sea

...And the Oscar goes to: Manchester by the Sea

- It's cool to see Amazon have a film take an award like this, and again, it is (from what I understand) an excellent script from a very good film. I have not seen it, and...honestly I do not know if I will, as I am pretty good at being sad on my own. 

Best Foreign Film: 

Dave: A Man Called Ove

Shaun: The Salesman

...And the Oscar goes to: The Salesman

- I have been anxiously awaiting my chance to see The Salesman (just where I live, and my schedule, it's tricky), and I'm happy to see it win. Obviously I wish that American politics were not run so idiotically that the filmmaker did not have an excellent reason to not be there, as it would have been good to see Asghar Farhadi get his second Academy Award, but...

Documentary Feature: 

Dave: O.J.: Made in America

Shaun: O.J.: Made in America

...And the Oscar goes to: O.J. Made in America

- Not really a surprise here, as while The 13th is amazing as well, Made in America is just such an amazing (and huge) project, that...yeah. Congratulations to the team.

Best Supporting Actress: 

Dave: Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

Shaun: Viola Davis - Fences

...And the Oscar goes to: Viola Davis - Fences

- This was the only award that I had already written in when I set this up for Monday. I know there are upsets in the Oscars (more on that later), but this was not going to be one of them. PLUS, this was also one of my favourite speeches in the entire ceremony (in a ceremony that had many good ones), but then again, every speech Davis gives is pretty damn great. 

Best Supporting Actor: 

Dave: Dev Patel - Lion

Shaun: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight

...And the Oscar goes to: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight

- Another award that made me happy; I'm rather amazed (yet sadly not) that Ali is the first Muslim actor to win an Oscar, and it was another award for a truly excellent film (and a truly excellent performer--I cannot think of a thing I have seen him in that I have not thought "wow, he's awesome" 

Best Actress: 

Dave: Ruth Negga - Loving

Shaun: Emma Stone - La La Land

...And the Oscar goes to: Emma Stone - La La Land

- As I said in the Podcast, she is the heart of La La Land, and she is another actor who...whenever I see her in something (even a little cameo in Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping) I think about how great of an actress she is. 

Best Actor: 

Dave: Denzel Washington - Fences

Shaun: Denzel Washington - Fences

...And the Oscar goes to: Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea

- Shame.

That's all I'm saying about it. 

Best Director: 

Dave: Damien Chazelle - La La Land

Shaun: Damien Chazelle - La La Land

...And the Oscar goes to: Damien Chazelle - La La Land

- The youngest ever Best Director winner, and from everything I have read, the driving force to get this absolutely wonderful film made. This was well deserved as he created a beautiful tribute to classic Hollywood, as well as something new and exciting, and I'm happy he got this. 


Dave: La La Land

Shaun: La La Land

...And the Oscar goes to: Moonlight

- When they were finally awarded their Best Picture award, I have to say, I was surprised by the upset...but not as surprised as I have been other years; I had talked about how "any other year, I see Moonlight walking away with it", so this was, while a bit of a shock, a welcome one. 
Honestly, the only reason I was disappointed, was for my pool numbers...outside of that: yes!

If you have not seen Moonlight, you really should. I understand that the subject matter may not be for everyone, but it is an important story that is told absolutely beautifully, and I hope that this win will encourage more and more people to see it. 

Well there you have it. With how everything shook out, here are the final tallies: 

DAVE: 4/24

SHAUN: 15/24

Moonlight: 3 Oscars, Including Best Picture

La La Land: 6 Oscars

I was a bit below my average this year, but not too far out, and the year felt a lot like the Gravity/12 Years a Slave split...which is actually rather nice to see when you get down to it, because as far as I'm concerned, both films are awesome (for completely different reasons) and both deserve the attention (and honestly, like I said above, Moonlight will hopefully benefit from the Best Picture win in getting more people to see it). 

See you again next year! 

-S (@Shauncord)

PS: Now, can we finally get the 25th Oscar added to next years ceremony for Stunt workers? Please? They very much deserve to have a category for their tireless work...AND I SAID THIS LAST YEAR TOO
Best Stunt Coordinator